Earlier this month, the U.S. administration signed into law a sweeping “reciprocal tariff policy” — a trade mechanism that, while politically strategic, risks leaving a sour aftertaste across the global fresh produce sector. Although its implementation has been delayed by 90 days, the signal to exporters and supply chain partners worldwide is clear: protectionism is back on the table.

The concern among producers, exporters, and importers alike stems from a deep understanding of how fresh produce trade flows. Unlike industrial goods, fruits and vegetables cannot simply be stockpiled or rerouted at will. The industry is perishable, time-sensitive, seasonal, and dependent on long-term trust-based relationships.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. currently imports approximately 60% of its fresh fruits and 40% of its vegetables [USDA ERS, 2024]. Mexico alone supplies over half of these fruits and nearly two-thirds of vegetables entering the U.S. market [Fresh Produce Association of the Americas (FPAA), 2023].

Fresh Fruits Don’t Wait

Data from the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE) underscores the magnitude of this risk. SHAFFE member countries — including Chile, South Africa, Peru, Argentina, New Zealand, and Australia — collectively export over 11 million tonnes of fresh fruit annually, much of it during Northern Hemisphere off-seasons [SHAFFE Annual Report, 2024]. The U.S. alone receives over 1.5 million tonnes of these exports each year, primarily between October and April, helping stabilise prices and ensure product availability [SHAFFE Trade Update, Q1 2025].

Without these imports, American retailers would face gaps in supply, increased procurement costs, and fewer options to keep shelves stocked year-round. Consumers, too, would feel the difference.

Who Really Pays?

A common political narrative suggests that tariffs are paid by foreign governments. In reality, it is U.S. importers who bear the brunt of the cost — and who inevitably pass those increases on to consumers. According to the American Action Forum, the newly enacted tariffs could add up to $5,000 per household annually, affecting both food prices and broader inflation [AAF Tariff Impact Study, 2025].

This would hit American families hard, especially considering that the average household already spends over $600 per year on fresh fruit alone [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023]. Rising prices could reduce access to healthy food options, undermine public health goals, and shrink demand across the board.

For exporters, the risks go beyond revenue loss. If U.S. buyers shift sourcing strategies or scale back orders, market share may be permanently lost. As SHAFFE has repeatedly emphasized, once a position in a retail program is lost, regaining it can take years — if it ever happens [SHAFFE Policy Brief, March 2025].

A Call for Dialogue, Not Disruption

The fresh produce industry is no stranger to adversity. It has weathered global pandemics, climate extremes, and shipping crises. But the sector’s resilience has always hinged on collaboration, not confrontation.

Trade groups such as SHAFFE, FPAA, and United Fresh Produce have issued joint statements urging the U.S. government to reconsider or redesign the tariff package in consultation with international stakeholders. Their message is clear: maintaining a fluid, rules-based global market is not only in the interest of exporters, but also of U.S. retailers, consumers, and the broader economy.

As the 90-day window ticks down, the sector awaits not just implementation details, but signs of economic pragmatism. In a global food system built on trust, transparency, and timing, tariffs on fresh produce are not just ineffective — they are counterproductive.

---

📚 Sources

SHAFFE Policy Brief, March 2025. Market Share and Tariff Consequences in the Fresh Produce Sector.ransparency, and timing, tariffs on fresh produce are not just ineffective — they are counterproductive.

USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), 2024. Fruit and Vegetable Trade Overview.

Fresh Produce Association of the Americas (FPAA), 2023. Annual Import Summary.

SHAFFE Annual Report, 2024 & Trade Update Q1 2025.

American Action Forum, 2025. Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on U.S. Households.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2023. Consumer Expenditures on Fruits and Vegetables.